tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 66 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay FLL departures

Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Wednesday to 35%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Wednesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 70 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Wednesday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)47% over 70 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 5:00 AM EST · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 10:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Wednesday to 35%

    What changed: 47% → 35% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 70 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Wednesday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)35% over 70 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 7:00 AM EST · 0.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Wed Nov 4, 9:01 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.