tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 224 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 224 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data <1 minFAA flight data <1 min

FAA NAS status is stale (224 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (224 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay MDW departures

Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 56%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View MDWFlights at MDW

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Midway departures 6–9 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 6:00 AM CDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-17 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 35 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 6:00 AM CDT · 10.4 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-17 12:34 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-16.2 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday at 54%

    What changed: 41% → 54% since the 6:00 AM CDT forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Saturday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-17 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)54% over 35 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 2:00 PM CDT · 2.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-17 20:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 56%

    What changed: 54% → 56% since the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 3:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-17 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 35 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 3:00 PM CDT · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-17 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Oct 17, 6:00 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.