Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 35%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 9:27 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Atlanta departures 3–6 PM Thursday
Tailodds’ model gives the 226 departures scheduled from Atlanta 3–6 PM Thursday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 42% over 226 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 2:00 AM EST · 11.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 08:25 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 35%, near normal
What changed: 42% → 35%; calm-weather level 27%
Tailodds’ model gives the 226 departures scheduled from Atlanta 3–6 PM Thursday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 35% over 226 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 8:00 AM EST · 5.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 14:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?