Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 37%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 12:56 PM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Atlanta departures 6–9 PM Thursday
Tailodds’ model gives the 203 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Thursday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 46% over 203 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 6:00 AM EST · 11.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 11:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 37%, near normal
What changed: 46% → 37%; calm-weather level 32%
Tailodds’ model gives the 203 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Thursday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 37% over 203 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 12:00 PM EST · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?