tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 64 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay STL departures

Model lowers St Louis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 28%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 7:25 AM CST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View STLFlights at STL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 40% delay risk for St Louis departures noon–3 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from St Louis noon–3 PM Thursday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSTL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)40% over 49 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 5, 4:00 AM CST · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-05 10:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers St Louis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 28%, near normal

    What changed: 40% → 28%; calm-weather level 26%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from St Louis noon–3 PM Thursday an average 28% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSTL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)28% over 49 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 5, 6:00 AM CST · 4.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-05 13:25 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?