Model lowers Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 34%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 9:27 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Raleigh/Durham departures 3–6 PM Thursday
Tailodds’ model gives the 59 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Thursday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 41% over 59 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 5:00 AM EST · 9.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 34%, near normal
What changed: 41% → 34%; calm-weather level 26%
Tailodds’ model gives the 59 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Thursday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 34% over 59 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 8:00 AM EST · 5.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 14:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?