Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 62 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min
What changed: about 13 → 12 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 35 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (34%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 26 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (38%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 8 → 9 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 26 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 40% → 51% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham noon–3 PM Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 38 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (37%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 52 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 43 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (27%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: 42% → 84% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 43 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 84%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
Of 14 departures that took off between 10:42 AM and 11:42 AM EST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Raleigh/Durham typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:42 AM–11:42 AM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 50%Typical 18%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View RDU
Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 10:23 PM and 11:23 PM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Raleigh/Durham arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 13 departures that took off between 6:22 PM and 7:22 PM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Raleigh/Durham typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: 45% → 61% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 43 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Thursday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham noon–3 PM Thursday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 47 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Thursday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 14 departures that took off between 5:59 PM and 6:59 PM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Raleigh/Durham typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 14 departures that took off between 4:17 PM and 5:17 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Raleigh/Durham typically sees 29% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
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Confirmed
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Observed
We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
Forecast
Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?