Model raises Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 51%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Raleigh/Durham departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham noon–3 PM Saturday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 40% over 35 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM EST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 51%
What changed: 40% → 51% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham noon–3 PM Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 51% over 35 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST · 3.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?