Model lowers expected cancellations among Raleigh/Durham departures 6–9 AM Saturday to about 3
- Current state
- Resolved at 3:57 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 3
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 6 cancellations among Raleigh/Durham departures 6–9 AM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 51 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.9 over 51 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM EST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 02:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 3 among Raleigh/Durham departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 6 → 3 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 52 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~3.2 over 52 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM EST · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations among Raleigh/Durham departures 6–9 AM Saturday to about 3
What changed: about 3 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 52 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~2.9 over 52 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM EST · 2.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?