tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 1 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 2 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation RDU departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among Raleigh/Durham departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View RDUFlights at RDU

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 8 cancellations among Raleigh/Durham departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 25 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (33%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetRDU departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~8.2 over 25 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among Raleigh/Durham departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    What changed: about 8 → 9 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 26 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetRDU departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~9.5 over 26 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST · 0.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sat Nov 14, 9:01 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.