Model raises expected cancellations to about 6 among Raleigh/Durham departures 6–9 PM Saturday
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- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 10 cancellations among Raleigh/Durham departures 6–9 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 26 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (38%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.9 over 26 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST · 9.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 11 among Raleigh/Durham departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 10 → 11 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 26 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (41%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.7 over 26 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Raleigh/Durham departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 11 → 4 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 26 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~3.8 over 26 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 5 among Raleigh/Durham departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 4 → 5 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 25 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~4.6 over 25 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM EST · 4.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 18:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 6 among Raleigh/Durham departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 5 → 6 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 25 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.8 over 25 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 PM EST · 1.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 21:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 6:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.