tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 62 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Significant New Delay RDU departures

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Raleigh/Durham departures 6–9 PM Saturday

Current state
New
Started
Latest activity
Updates
1
Create monitor View RDUFlights at RDU

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Raleigh/Durham departures 6–9 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetRDU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 26 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST · 9.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?