tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 5 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 69 minLightning 1 minWeather observations <1 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay RDU departures

Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Raleigh/Durham departures 3–6 PM Thursday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Create monitor View RDUFlights at RDU

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Raleigh/Durham departures 3–6 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 47 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Thursday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetRDU departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)42% over 47 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 5:00 AM EST · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 10:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Nov 12, 3:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.