Model lowers Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 31%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 6:57 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Raleigh/Durham departures noon–3 PM Thursday
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham noon–3 PM Thursday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 41% over 33 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 5:00 AM EST · 6.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 10:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 31%, near normal
What changed: 41% → 31%; calm-weather level 18%
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham noon–3 PM Thursday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 31% over 33 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 6:00 AM EST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?