tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 5 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 69 minLightning 1 minWeather observations <1 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay RDU departures

Model raises Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 61%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View RDUFlights at RDU

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Raleigh/Durham departures 6–9 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetRDU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 41 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 1:00 PM EST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 18:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 61%

    What changed: 45% → 61% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 43 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Thursday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetRDU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)61% over 43 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 5:00 PM EST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 22:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Nov 12, 6:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.