tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 69 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay RDU departures

Updated model puts Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 84%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View RDUFlights at RDU

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Raleigh/Durham departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetRDU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)42% over 42 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 7:00 AM EST · 9.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 84%

    What changed: 42% → 84% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 43 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetRDU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)84% over 43 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 13, 6:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.