tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 2 hLightning 2 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SAN departures

Model forecasts 56% delay risk for San Diego departures 3–6 PM Thursday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 56% delay risk for San Diego departures 3–6 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 92 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Thursday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 92 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 5, 1:00 PM PST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-05 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Nov 5, 3:01 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.