tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 224 h staleForecast cycle 69 minLightning 224 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (224 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (224 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SEA departures

Model lowers Seattle departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 29%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 5:56 AM PST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View SEAFlights at SEA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Seattle departures noon–3 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 129 departures scheduled from Seattle noon–3 PM Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSEA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)42% over 129 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 2:00 AM PST · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 10:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Seattle departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 29%, near normal

    What changed: 42% → 29%; calm-weather level 22%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 129 departures scheduled from Seattle noon–3 PM Friday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSEA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)29% over 129 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 4:00 AM PST · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 13:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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