tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 5 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 1 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SAN departures

Model forecasts 51% delay risk for San Diego departures noon–3 PM Friday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
1
Create monitor View SANFlights at SAN

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 51% delay risk for San Diego departures noon–3 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 120 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)51% over 120 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 7:00 AM PST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Nov 6, 12:00 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.