tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 64 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay FLL departures

Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 61%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View FLLFlights at FLL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 62 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 61%

    What changed: 50% → 61% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)61% over 63 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 1:00 PM EST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 18:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 6, 3:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.