tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 66 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay FLL departures

Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 71%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
5
Create monitor View FLLFlights at FLL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 63% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)63% over 16 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 1:00 PM EST · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 18:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 71%

    What changed: 63% → 71% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)71% over 16 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 4:00 PM EST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 66%

    What changed: 71% → 66% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)66% over 16 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 5:00 PM EST · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 22:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 72%

    What changed: 66% → 72% since the 5:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)72% over 16 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 6:00 PM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  5. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 71%

    What changed: 72% → 71% since the 6:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)71% over 16 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 7:00 PM EST · 0.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Nov 6, 9:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.