tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 76 minLightning <1 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MDW departures

Model forecasts 69% delay risk for Midway departures 6–9 PM Friday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Create monitor View MDWFlights at MDW

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 69% delay risk for Midway departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Friday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)69% over 72 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 1:00 PM CST · 3.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 20:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 6, 6:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.