Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 38%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 8:27 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Miami departures 3–6 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 117 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 47% over 117 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 7, 4:00 AM EST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-07 09:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 38%, near normal
What changed: 47% → 38%; calm-weather level 31%
Tailodds’ model gives the 116 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Saturday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 38% over 116 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 7, 7:00 AM EST · 6.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-07 13:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?