tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 225 h staleForecast cycle 2 hLightning 225 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 2 min

FAA NAS status is stale (225 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (225 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay LAS departures

Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday to 50%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View LASFlights at LAS

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 57% delay risk for Las Vegas departures 3–6 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 3–6 PM Sunday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 102 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 12:00 PM PDT · 1.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 20:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday to 50%

    What changed: 57% → 50% since the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 3–6 PM Sunday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 102 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 1:00 PM PDT · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Oct 18, 3:01 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.