tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 83 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SFO departures

Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 51%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 47% delay risk for SFO departures 3–6 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 92 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Monday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)47% over 92 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 9, 10:00 AM PST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-09 18:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 56%

    What changed: 47% → 56% since the 10:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 92 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Monday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 92 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 9, 12:00 PM PST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-09 20:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 51%

    What changed: 56% → 51% since the 12:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 95 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Monday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)51% over 95 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 9, 1:00 PM PST · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-09 21:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Mon Nov 9, 3:00 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.