tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 83 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SFO departures

Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 41%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 8:56 PM PST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
5
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 50% delay risk for SFO departures 9 PM–midnight Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 82 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 82 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 9, 11:00 AM PST · 8.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-09 20:28 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 56%

    What changed: 50% → 56% since the 11:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 82 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 82 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 9, 2:00 PM PST · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-09 22:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 43%

    What changed: 56% → 43% since the 2:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 82 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)43% over 82 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 9, 4:00 PM PST · 3.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-10 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 45%

    What changed: 43% → 45% since the 4:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 82 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 5:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 82 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 9, 5:00 PM PST · 2.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-10 02:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 41%, near normal

    What changed: 45% → 41%; calm-weather level 36%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 84 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 84 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 9, 8:00 PM PST · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-10 04:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?