tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 86 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MDW departures

Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 64%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View MDWFlights at MDW

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Midway departures 6–9 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Monday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)51% over 41 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 9, 2:00 PM CST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-09 20:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 64%

    What changed: 51% → 64% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Monday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)64% over 41 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 9, 5:00 PM CST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-09 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Mon Nov 9, 6:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.