tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 224 h staleForecast cycle 68 minLightning 224 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min

FAA NAS status is stale (224 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (224 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SEA departures

Model lowers Seattle departure delay risk 6–9 PM Tuesday to 31%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 2:57 PM PST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Seattle departures 6–9 PM Tuesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from Seattle 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSEA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-10 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 69 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 10, 10:00 AM PST · 7.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-10 18:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Seattle departure delay risk 6–9 PM Tuesday to 31%, near normal

    What changed: 45% → 31%; calm-weather level 18%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from Seattle 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSEA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-10 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)31% over 69 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 10, 2:00 PM PST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-10 22:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?