tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 85 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MDW departures

Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 3–6 PM Wednesday to 29%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 8:27 AM CST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View MDWFlights at MDW

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Midway departures 3–6 PM Wednesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Wednesday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-11 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)42% over 27 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 11, 5:00 AM CST · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-11 11:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 3–6 PM Wednesday to 29%, near normal

    What changed: 42% → 29%; calm-weather level 25%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Wednesday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-11 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)29% over 27 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 11, 7:00 AM CST · 6.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-11 14:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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