tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 61 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay ORD departures

Model lowers O'Hare departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Wednesday to 39%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 7:26 PM CST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 51% delay risk for O'Hare departures 9 PM–midnight Wednesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 138 departures scheduled from O'Hare 9 PM–midnight Wednesday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-11 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)51% over 138 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 11, 5:00 PM CST · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-11 23:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers O'Hare departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Wednesday to 39%, near normal

    What changed: 51% → 39%; calm-weather level 37%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 138 departures scheduled from O'Hare 9 PM–midnight Wednesday an average 39% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-11 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)39% over 138 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 11, 6:00 PM CST · 1.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 01:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?