tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 70 minLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay PHL departures

Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 31%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 5:57 AM EST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View PHLFlights at PHL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Philadelphia departures 3–6 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 3–6 PM Thursday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)40% over 62 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 11, 7:00 PM EST · 18.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 01:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Philadelphia departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 31%, near normal

    What changed: 40% → 31%; calm-weather level 23%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 3–6 PM Thursday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)31% over 63 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 5:00 AM EST · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 10:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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