tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning <1 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MCO departures

Model forecasts 50% delay risk for MCO departures 6–9 PM Thursday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
1
Create monitor View MCOFlights at MCO

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 50% delay risk for MCO departures 6–9 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from MCO 6–9 PM Thursday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMCO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 118 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 2:00 PM EST · 2.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 20:25 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Thu Nov 12, 6:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.