tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 62 minLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 7 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Developing Cancellation BOS departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Boston departures noon–3 PM Friday

Current state
Developing
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 8 cancellations among Boston departures noon–3 PM Friday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 77 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~8.2 over 77 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST · 8.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 08:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Boston departures noon–3 PM Friday

    What changed: about 8 → 4 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 77 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~4.0 over 77 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST · 8.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 08:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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