tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Developing Delay BOS departures

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 35%

Current state
Developing
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Boston departures noon–3 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)47% over 77 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST · 8.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 08:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 35%

    What changed: 47% → 35% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Friday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)35% over 77 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST · 8.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 08:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?