tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 231 h staleForecast cycle 2 hLightning 231 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min

FAA NAS status is stale (231 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (231 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation BOS departures

Updated model now expects about 5 among Boston departures 3–6 PM Friday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View BOSFlights at BOS

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 9 cancellations among Boston departures 3–6 PM Friday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 96 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~8.8 over 96 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 5:00 AM EST · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 10:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 5 among Boston departures 3–6 PM Friday

    What changed: about 9 → 5 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 98 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.0 over 98 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 8:00 AM EST · 5.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 14:25 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.