Model lowers St Louis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 32%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 7:26 AM CST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 42% delay risk for St Louis departures noon–3 PM Friday
Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from St Louis noon–3 PM Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target STL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 42% over 35 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM CST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 10:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers St Louis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 32%, near normal
What changed: 42% → 32%; calm-weather level 22%
Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from St Louis noon–3 PM Friday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target STL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 32% over 35 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 6:00 AM CST · 4.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?