tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 229 h staleForecast cycle 57 minLightning 229 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (229 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (229 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant New Delay PHX departures

Model forecasts 54% delay risk for Phoenix departures 6–9 PM Friday

Current state
New
Started
Latest activity
Updates
1
Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 54% delay risk for Phoenix departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 95 departures scheduled from Phoenix 6–9 PM Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 7:00 AM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)54% over 95 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 7:00 AM MST · 10.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 14:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?