Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 51%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 11:56 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 59% delay risk for BWI departures 6–9 PM Friday
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BWI departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 59% over 57 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM EST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 15:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 51%, near normal
What changed: 59% → 51%; calm-weather level 44%
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BWI departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 51% over 57 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 11:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?