tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 2 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 6 min
Forecast Significant New Delay BWI departures

Model forecasts 63% delay risk for BWI departures 6–9 PM Friday

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Create monitor View BWIFlights at BWI

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 63% delay risk for BWI departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBWI departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)63% over 57 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 3:00 PM EST · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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