tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay SLC departures

Model raises Salt Lake City departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 55%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
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Updates
2
Create monitor View SLCFlights at SLC

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Salt Lake City departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 2:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSLC departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)51% over 36 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 2:00 PM MST · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Salt Lake City departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 55%

    What changed: 51% → 55% since the 2:00 PM MST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 7:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSLC departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 33 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 7:00 PM MST · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 02:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.