Model raises expected cancellations to about 38 among Salt Lake City departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 7 cancellations among Salt Lake City departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 105 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SLC departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.1 over 105 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM MST · 10.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 05:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 21 among Salt Lake City departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 7 → 21 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM MST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 105 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SLC departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~20.6 over 105 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM MST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 7 among Salt Lake City departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 21 → 7 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM MST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 105 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SLC departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.0 over 105 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM MST · 6.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 38 among Salt Lake City departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 7 → 38 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM MST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 38 of the 105 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SLC departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~38.2 over 105 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM MST · 2.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?