Model lowers Salt Lake City departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 31%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 4:57 AM MST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 4
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 57% delay risk for Salt Lake City departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 105 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 11%. From the 11:00 PM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SLC departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 57% over 105 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM MST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Salt Lake City departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday at 49%
What changed: 57% → 49% since the 11:00 PM MST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 105 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 12:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SLC departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 49% over 105 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM MST · 7.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Salt Lake City departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 34%
What changed: 49% → 34% since the 12:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 105 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 11%. From the 3:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SLC departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 34% over 105 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM MST · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Salt Lake City departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 31%, near normal
What changed: 34% → 31%; calm-weather level 12%
Tailodds’ model gives the 105 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 4:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SLC departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 31% over 105 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM MST · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?