Model raises Salt Lake City departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 57%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 52% delay risk for Salt Lake City departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City noon–3 PM Saturday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 1:00 AM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SLC departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 52% over 34 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM MST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Salt Lake City departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday at 57%
What changed: 52% → 57% since the 1:00 AM MST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City noon–3 PM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 2:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SLC departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 57% over 34 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM MST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Salt Lake City departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 43%
What changed: 57% → 43% since the 2:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City noon–3 PM Saturday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 3:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SLC departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 43% over 34 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM MST · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Salt Lake City departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 57%
What changed: 43% → 57% since the 3:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City noon–3 PM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 5:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SLC departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 57% over 34 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM MST · 5.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?