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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation SLC departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 12 among Salt Lake City departures 3–6 PM Saturday

Current state: Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started: Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM MST
Latest activity: Sat Nov 14, 11:55 AM MST
Updates: 4

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

Initial Forecast Sat Nov 14, 6:26 AM MST

Model expects about 25 cancellations among Salt Lake City departures 3–6 PM Saturday

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 25 of the 84 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (29%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	SLC departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~24.6 over 84 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM MST · 8.6 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM MST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 6:26 AM MST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 6:26 AM MST (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 9:56 AM MST

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among Salt Lake City departures 3–6 PM Saturday

What changed: about 25 → 11 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM MST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 84 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	SLC departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~10.5 over 84 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM MST · 5.1 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM MST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 9:56 AM MST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 9:56 AM MST (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM MST

Model raises expected cancellations to about 30 among Salt Lake City departures 3–6 PM Saturday

What changed: about 11 → 30 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM MST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 30 of the 84 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (35%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	SLC departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~29.7 over 84 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM MST · 4.1 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM MST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM MST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM MST (2026-11-14 17:56 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 11:55 AM MST