tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 84 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay SLC departures

Updated model puts Salt Lake City departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday at 61%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View SLCFlights at SLC

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Salt Lake City departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 10:00 AM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSLC departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)48% over 34 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 10:00 AM MST · 10.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Salt Lake City departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday at 61%

    What changed: 48% → 61% since the 10:00 AM MST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 12:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSLC departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)61% over 34 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 12:00 PM MST · 7.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 20:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 9:01 PM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.