tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 5 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning <1 minWeather observations <1 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Major New Delay MDW departures

Model forecasts 92% delay risk for Midway departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

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Create monitor View MDWFlights at MDW

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 92% delay risk for Midway departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 92% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)92% over 29 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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