tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation MIA departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 5 cancellations among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 71 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.3 over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 5:00 PM EST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 22:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    What changed: about 5 → 9 expected cancellations since the 5:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 71 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~9.0 over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 6:00 PM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    What changed: about 9 → 14 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 70 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (19%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~13.6 over 70 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST · 0.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.