tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories <1 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning <1 minWeather observations <1 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Major Developing Cancellation SAN departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among San Diego departures 6–9 PM Friday

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Developing
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 5 cancellations among San Diego departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 55 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.0 over 55 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 2:00 PM PST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 22:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among San Diego departures 6–9 PM Friday

    What changed: about 5 → 9 expected cancellations since the 2:00 PM PST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 55 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~9.1 over 55 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 3:00 PM PST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?