Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 66%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 47% delay risk for San Diego departures 9 PM–midnight Friday
Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 47% over 34 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM PST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 18:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 55%
What changed: 47% → 55% since the 10:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 34 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 12:00 PM PST · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 20:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 66%
What changed: 55% → 66% since the 12:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 66% over 34 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?