tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation LAS departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among Las Vegas departures 6–9 PM Friday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 11 cancellations among Las Vegas departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 62 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~10.7 over 62 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 3:00 PM PST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among Las Vegas departures 6–9 PM Friday

    What changed: about 11 → 16 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM PST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 59 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (28%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~16.3 over 59 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST · 0.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.